This simulator was developed from choice models of consumer preference and allows easy exploration of those models through the creation of possible market scenarios and output of predicted changes to market share.
The simulator is comprised of a number of screens to explore the models and simulate the market as well as segment and market filters to aid with estimates of market share and revenue.
The simulator is layed out with each of the major products in the market presented in columns. Within each product there are a number of product attributes listed underneath. Underneath each product is a predicted market share for each one displayed as a percentage with a corresponding graphic beneath it.
On the top right is a dropdown menu for the segment currently being explored. At the bottom left are a number of function buttons for automating exploration of the simulator.
Start by selecting the segment you wish to explore from the dropdown menu at the top right. Segments modelled in this simulator are listed above
Next, modify any of the product attributes you wish by clicking on it. A dropdown list will appear with all the possible levels relevant for that attribute and a graphic showing the effect of changing from the current level. If Price is selected you can either use the slider at the bottom, select one of the intervals or directly enter a price into the price field.
Note that the market shares at the bottom will have changed. Underneath the market shares is a percentage change from the last operation.
The simulator can automatically find the optimal set of attribute settings for each of the products. To do this, select the product by clicking on it. The entire column will be highlighted. Then click 'maximise'. The simulator will search for the optimal combination of levels for that selected product.
The reverse operation 'minimise' will search for the least-optimal settings for the selected product.
The 'reset' function will restore all products to their initial settings.
This screen shows a summary of the factor effects. The size of the range of effects are displayed for each attribute. This is a good place to start to get a feel for what factors are driving choice.
This screen shows the price elasticities for each option for the current simulator settings. It is constructed by systematically increasing each option's price and charting the predicted share.
Uses the calculated elasticities above to show how revenue changes at various price points.
This tab displays the raw model estimates used in the Simulator calculations.
Each Attribute level is displayed as a utility - being the natural log of the odds. A higher positive utility indicates increased preference for the level and greater contribution to choosing a product/service with this attribute level.
Utilities are normalised around zero. Negative utilities do not mean a negative preference - only a lower preference to an attribute with higher utilities.
There is no "Market Reach" dropdown on this screen as the models displayed are from raw experiment and have not been scaled.
Three filters are provided to help view the models and focus on specific effects, these are described below.
This dropdown menu allows viewing of all charts, models and the simulatore for the segment chosen. The 'Aggregate' segment is the entire sample. Once selected, all view of the model, charts and simulator will be updated to reflect the chosen segment only
All model predictions assume all respondents tested have perfect information, that all products are available and all transactions are frictionless, as indeed they were in the context of the study. This ideal state is known as 'equilibrium'. In order to simulate current market conditions, a dropdown selected titled 'Market Reach' is provided. 100% market reach means 'at equilibrium' where perfect information exits, conversely 0% represents the current market shares with zero information about the simulated products features. Any point inbetween is a weighted sum of current market share and ideal equilibrium market share.
This popup allows the input of current market size for the purposes of calculating actual sales and revenue in the various charts
Software © 2016 SurveyEngine P/L. Process & Method Protected by International Patent Cooperation Treaties (PCT/AU2011/001405)